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Item State of the climate in South-West Pacific 2022(World Meteorological Organization, 2023) World Meteorological Organization (WMO)The report on the State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2022 is the result of collaboration between NMHSs in the region, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and other specialized agencies of the United Nations. This multi-agency effort provides a summary of the state of climate, extreme events and their socio-economic impacts in the South-West Pacific region in 2022. The 2022 report is the third in the series of the report.Item Emissions gap report 2021: the heat is on - a world of climate promises not yet delivered(United Nations Environment Programme, 2021)The Emissions Gap Report (EGR) 2021: The Heat Is On shows that new national climate pledges combined with other mitigation measures put the world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century. That is well above the goals of the Paris climate agreement and would lead to catastrophic changes in the Earth’s climate. To keep global warming below 1.5°C this century, the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement, the world needs to halve annual greenhouse gas emissions in the next eight years. If implemented effectively, net-zero emissions pledges could limit warming to 2.2°C, closer to the well-below 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement. However, many national climate plans delay action until after 2030. The reduction of methane emissions from the fossil fuel, waste and agriculture sectors could help close the emissions gap and reduce warming in the short term, the report finds. Carbon markets could also help slash emissions. But that would only happen if rules are clearly defined and target actual reductions in emissions, while being supported by arrangements to track progress and provide transparency.Item Emissions gap report: broken record: temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)(United Nations Environment Programme, 2023)The world is witnessing a disturbing acceleration in the number, speed and scale of broken climate records. At the time of writing, 86 days have been recorded with temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this year. Not only was September the hottest month ever, it also exceeded the previous record by an unprecedented 0.5°C, with global average temperatures at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels. These records were accompanied by devastating extreme events, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned us are merely a meek beginning. While the records do not imply that the world has exceeded the 1.5°C temperature limit specified in the Paris Agreement, which refers to global warming levels based on multi-decadal averages, they signal that we are getting closer. This fourteenth Emissions Gap Report is published ahead of the twenty-eighth session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 28). It provides an annual, independent science-based assessment of the gap between the pledged greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions and the reductions required to align with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, as well as opportunities to bridge this gap. COP 28 marks the conclusion of the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement, held every five years to assess the global response to the climate crisis and chart a better way forward. This closely mirrors the objective of the Emissions Gap Report, and the report aims to provide findings relevant to the concluding discussions under the global stocktake. To inform COP 28 – including on the outcomes needed from the global stocktake – and set the scene for the next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that countries are requested to submit in 2025, which will include emissions reduction targets for 2035, this report looks at what is required this decade and beyond 2030 to maintain the possibility of achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. It underscores that maintaining this possibility hinges on relentlessly strengthening mitigation action this decade to narrow the emissions gap. This will facilitate significantly more ambitious targets for 2035 in the next round of NDCs, and pave the way for enhancing the credibility and feasibility of the net-zero pledges that by now cover around 80 per cent of global emissions. Failure to bring global GHG emissions in 2030 below the levels implied by current NDCs will make it impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot and strongly increase the challenge of limiting warming to 2°C. As this report shows, not only temperature records continue to be broken – global GHG emissions and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) also set new records in 2022. Due to the failure to stringently reduce emissions in high-income and high-emitting countries (which bear the greatest responsibility for past emissions) and to limit emissions growth in low- and middle-income countries (which account for the majority of current emissions), unprecedented action is now needed by all countries. For high-income countries, this implies further accelerating domestic emissions reductions, committing to reaching net zero as soon as possible – and sooner than the global averages from the latest IPCC report implies – and at the same time providing financial and technical support to low- and middle-income countries. For low- and middle-income countries, it means that pressing development needs must be met alongside a transition away from fossil fuels. Furthermore, the delay in stringent mitigation action will likely increase future dependence on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, but availability of large-scale CDR options in the future cannot be taken for granted. This year, the report thus explores opportunities and challenges associated with energy transitions as well as development and deployment of CDR.Item Climate transparency report : comparing G20 climate action(Climate Transparency, 2022) Climate TransparencyRecognising South Africa’s fossil fuel dependence and the need to address climate and development in an integrated manner, Just Transition is high on the policy agenda. In 2020, a Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) was launched, comprising stakeholders from labour, civil society, business, and youth. At COP26 in 2021, South Africa and international partners agreed to the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), a first of its kind financing deal to support the transition to a low-carbon economy and society.Item Climate transparency report : comparing G20 climate action and responses to the Covid-19 crisis(Climate Transparency, 2020) Climate TransparencySouth Africa responded to COVID-19 with an early lockdown, just three weeks after its first reported case on 5 March 2020. This quick response managed to prevent an exponential initial outbreak, but the virus has continued to spread, greatly impacting the most vulnerable and exacerbating problems in a healthcare system already coping with HIV and TB epidemics. In April 2020, the government announced a USD 26bn stimulus package in response to COVID-19, almost 10% of South Africa’s GDP.Item Climate change and disaster management in local government : skills needs and development(Local Government, 2014) Local GovernmentThe current and continued changes in global climate, influences the occurrences of extreme weather-related events, which are projected to increase in both intensity and frequency, with detrimental impacts on the social, economic and environmental sectors.Item Climate and health country profile – 2015 : South Africa(World Health Organization, 2015) World Health OrganizationThe Health and Climate Change Country Profile Project forms the foundation of WHO’s monitoring of national and global progress on health and climate change. Working in collaboration with national health authorities and health stakeholders, the Project aims to: Increase awareness of the health impacts of climate change. Support evidence- based decision making to strengthen the resilience of health systems. Support health involvement in national and international climate processes such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Promote actions that improve health while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Item Long-term adaptation scenarios flagship research programme (LTAS) : climate change implications for the water sector in South Africa(Department of Environmental Affairs, 2013) Department of Environmental AffairsThis technical report summarises climate change impacts, adaptation response options and future research needs for the water sector based on the results of relevant past and current research, including the draft National Water Resource Strategy 2 (NWRS2), the National Water Adaptation Strategy process, and new impact modelling for annual and seasonal runoff under both unconstrained and constrained pathways from recent modelling work conducted by the Treasury and the National Planning Commission.Item Regional maximum flood peaks in Southern Africa(Department of Water Affairs, Directorate of Hydrology, 1988) Kovacs, Z.The regional maximum flood (RMF) is an empirically established upper limit of flood peaks that can be reasonably expected at a given site. The proposed method for the estimation of RMF is a revised and updated version of Departmental technical report TR 105 published in 1980' 1 ' The method is based on maximum flood peaks recorded since 1856 at more than 500 sites in Southern Africa. The relative flood peak magnitude is expressed by the Francou-Rodier regional coefficient K. Eight maximum flood peak regions were delimited by a joint consideration of K, maximum observed 3 day rainfall and catchment characteristics. The respective K envelope lines (K.) were established by taking onto account the number and quality of data. The RMF can be instantly calculated if the geographic position of the site and its effective catchment area are known. Owing to its consistency the RMF compares favourably with results obtained by other methods. It is also shown that flood peaks in the 50 to 200-year recurrence interval can be estimated from RMF.Item National climate change response white paper(Government of the Republic of South Africa, 2014) Government of the Republic of South AfricaThis white paper presents the South African Government’s vision for an effective climate change response and the long-term, just transition to a climate-resilient and lower-carbon economy and society.Item South Africa's 4th biennial update report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE), 2021) Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE)Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) and Gondwana Environmental Solutions’ worked with several stakeholders in developing the 4th Biennial Update Report of South Africa.Item First biennial report to cabinet on the state of climate change : science and technology in South Africa(Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf), 2017) Academy of Science of South AfricaThis report aligns with the Medium-Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) of the government of South Africa, which in turn stems from the work of the National Planning Commission and its National Development Plan (NDP). Outcome 10 of the MTSF calls for a report on the state of climate change science and technology in South Africa to be provided to Cabinet by the DST and the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) every two years. This is the first such report. The report aims to: provide a critical assessment and comparative overview of climate change scientific research and related technological innovations; identify any gaps or barriers in research and technology development value chains; suggest ways to improve the current situation and maximise opportunities for South Africa.Item The IPCC’s fifth assessment report: what's in it for Africa?(Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2014)The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report offers the following key messages for Africa: Africa’s climate is already changing and the impacts are already being felt The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds, beyond reasonable doubt, that the Earth’s climate is warming. Since the 1950s, the rate of global warming has been unprecedented compared to previous decades and millennia. The IPCC finds with 95% certainty that human activity, by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. The Fifth Assessment Report presents strong evidence that warming over land across Africa has increased over the last 50–100 years. Surface temperatures have already increased by 0.5–2°C over the past hundred years. Data from 1950 onwards suggests that climate change has changed the magnitude and frequency of some extreme weather events in Africa already. The health, livelihoods and food security of people in Africa have been affected by climate change.Item Detailed projections of future climate change over South Africa : workstream 2 : research report(Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), 2019) Engelbrecht, FrancoisThis work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the CSIR Long-term Thematic Programme, Pretoria, South Africa and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the IDRC or its Board of GovernorsItem Climate change in Southern Africa(World Food Programme, 2021) World Food ProgrammeBased on the technical paper Ramirez-Villegas J, Ghosh A, Craparo A, Thornton P, Manvatkar R, Bogart B, Läderach P . 2021. Climate change and its impacts in Southern Africa: A synthesis of existing evidence in support of the World Food Programme’s position paper. CCAFS Working paper No. 358. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFSItem Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st century(Centre for Environmental Rights, 2021-09) Scholes, Robert; Engelbrecht, FrancoisThere is no scientific doubt that the climate of southern Africa is becoming warmer, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases is increasing and the sea level surrounding the continent is rising. Human activities are by far the largest cause of these changes. The principle causes are the global burning of fossil fuels and the transformation of the global land surface from natural vegetation to croplands, pastures and human settlements. The climate will continue to change throughout the 21st century, to a degree mostly determined by human actions and the policies that guide them. Global ‘low mitigation futures’ that lead to global mean warming well in excess of 3 C pose much higher risks to the future development of South Africa than ‘high mitigation futures’ which limit warming below 2 C; which in turn have higher risks than futures which stay below 1.5 °C, or only briefly exceed it. The latter two futures require urgent and strenuous efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including by developing countries like South Africa. Southern Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its geographical location and socioeconomic development state. It is an already warm and dry region, projected to become warmer and drier, and has many demands on its institutions and finances in addition to climate change. Warming in the interior of southern Africa is occurring at about twice the global average rate. There is a high likelihood that agricultural production in southern Africa, including staple crops and livestock, will be reduced relative to the no climate change case. This is because the region is already beyond the temperature optimum for most crop and livestock production, and crop and forage production in an already dry country decreases if soil moisture decreases further. These impacts increase as the level of global warming increases, and at 3 °C of global warming the collapse of key crops and the livestock sector are likely. Freshwater availability, already critically limited in southern Africa, will be reduced in future as a result of decreasing rainfall and increasing evaporation. These impacts will amplify as the level of global warming increases. Water quality also decreases in a warmer, drier southern Africa, increasing the risk of water-borne diseases. The likelihood of long-duration droughts increases in the future because of two fundamental mechanisms resulting from global warming: the strengthening of subsidence over southern Africa, and the poleward movement of frontal systems. When droughts exceed the historically-experienced frequency and intensity, the coping mechanisms are overwhelmed. These risks increase from 1.5 to 2 °C of global warming, with further increases under higher levels of global warming. The number, intensity and duration of heat waves in South Africa will increase steeply in future as a result of global warming. The capacity to perform manual labour out of doors decreases dramatically as the occurrence of heat waves increases. Human mortality increases, particularly in urban areas with inadequate housing, but may in some locations be offset by decreases in mortality as a result of fewer cold spells. The risk of severe storms, including intense tropical cyclones and very intense thunderstorms, increases with climate change in southern Africa. As a result, loss of life, injury and damage to infrastructure also increases. Thousands of species, many occurring only in southern Africa, are at increased risk of premature extinction as a result of human-caused climate change. This loss has negative consequences for human wellbeing and the economy, as well as weakening the capacity to adapt to climate change.Item Assessing the climate resilience of Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA): a metric-based approach(MDPI (Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute), 2021-11-07) Sono, Douglas; Wei, Ye; Jin, YingThe impacts of climate change have resulted in the emergence of resilience as the de factor framework for countries seeking to capture the differential and uneven ability to prepare, react, respond and cope with volatile and rapid changes of climate-related stresses. Despite being considered by many researchers the most vulnerable region to the negative effects of climate change, the climate resilience of Sub-Saharan Africa has not been extensively studied. Using countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a study area, this paper constructed a pragmatically based resilience metric called the composite national climate resilience index (CNCRI) that can be used as a tool for the policy word. The inherent variables used to construct the CNCRI were justified and used to measure the resilience of countries in SSA based on five different dimensions. The result indicates that the CNCRI score, 1.05 (least resilient) to 44.8 (most resilient), and the island countries of Mauritius, Seychelles, and Cape Verde are comparatively more resilient than the rest of the countries in the study area. Regionally, Southern Africa is more resilient compared to East, West, and Central Africa. The vulnerability and readiness metric suggested that Cape Verde is the only country in SSA to have low vulnerability and high readiness, while most countries have high vulnerability and low readiness, making them the least resilient countries needing urgent mitigation and adaptation actions. Lastly, finding from this study could provide the policy world with insight for improving the overall ability to prepare and respond to the negative impacts of climate in the study area.Item Mitigation: South Africa’s greenhouse gas mitigation potential analysis(Department of Environmental Affairs, 2014)A greenhouse gas mitigation potential analysis has been conducted for South Africa. The analysis has identified and analysed mitigation options in key economic sectors. In the process, an updated projection of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the future has been developed, along with marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) for key sectors and subsectors. A socio-economic and environmental assessment of the identified mitigation options has also been conducted, leading to the development of national abatement pathways and an assessment of the wider macroeconomic impacts of implementing a broad set of mitigation options. Projections of economic growth are aligned to targeted levels of future economic growth. The targeted level of future economic growth is based on the moderate growth rate defined by National Treasury. The moderate growth scenario forecasts real growth in gross domestic product (GDP growth) of 4.2% per annum over the medium-term (defined in the draft Integrated Energy Plan as 2015–2020) and 4.3% per annum over the long-term (2021–2050). A detailed inter-industry economic modelling framework, the Inter-industry Forecasting Model (INFORUM), was used as the basis for projecting economic growth in all sectors of the South African economy.Item WMO global annual to decadal climate update(World Meteorological Organization, 2022) World Meteorological OrganizationThe global annual to decadal climate udate is issued annually by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO designated global producing centres.Item Ecosystem-based flood management a comparative study report of the cities of Cape Town and Durban (South Africa), Nairobi and Mombasa (Kenya)(Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2021) Gajjar, Sumetee Pahwa; Wendo, Hausner; Polgar, Ana; Hofemeier, AlannahFlooding poses a significant threat to cities in the Global South with unplanned city extensions, prevalent poverty and low adaptive capacity. Depending on location, physical characteristics, and climate change risk, urban areas can be affected by a number of flooding typologies. Urban floods are becoming more common as a result of increasing urbanization, climate change, and poor urban planning including the gap in service provision and limitations in effective solid waste management. Rapid urbanisation means cities have reduced ability to learn from mistakes and build adaptive capacity. Nevertheless, there is a broad range of interventions and measures to reduce flood risk at different scales. Flooding is often considered as the most devastating natural hazard to manage through disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies. Integrated Flood Risk Management (IFRM) describes a broader approach, entailing a combination of structural as well as non-structural elements, which improves resilience to flood disasters. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) and nature-based solutions (NbS), which aim to restore and enhance the natural dynamics of ecosystems to buffer the adverse impacts of climate change, can provide many environmental, socioeconomic, and biodiversity benefits for flood risk management solutions. The capital city of Ghana, Accra, and its peri-urban areas have always suffered from annual floods during the rainy seasons. Supported by CDKN, five Accra municipalities are working together with the University of Ghana to address flood risk with a special focus on the use of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) approaches to finding a lasting solution to the perennial flooding in Accra. In order to give recommendations to Accra officials and to foster exchange between Accra-based District and Municipal officials with selected cities in South Africa and Kenya, this report showcases good practices in flood management approaches by the cities of Cape Town, Durban, Nairobi and Mombasa to provide concise information on DRR practices, with a specific focus on EbA and NbS. Information on the case study cities was gathered using literature review and guided by and expanded upon semi-structured interviews. These were conducted with representatives of city authorities, national governments, public benefit organisations whose work touched on flood resilience, community organisations and research institutions. The researchers agreed upon a survey framework in advance so that data could be collected from the different cities in a systematic and consistent manner. While each of the cities has their very own political, social and cultural context, some of the key challenges related to flooding seem to appear in almost every city. Rapid urbanisation in response to high development needs, leads to an increase in impervious surfaces, areas with a lack of solid waste management or insufficient drainage systems. Especially affected are (informal) settlements located in flood prone areas. Moreover, every city is already observing adverse impacts by climate change such as an increase in heavy rainfall or precipitation extremes.