Climate Action

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2020 State of climate services: risk information and early warning systems
(World Meteorological Organization, 2020) World Meteorological Organization
Between 1970 and 2019, 79% of disasters worldwide involved weather, water, and climate-related hazards. These disasters accounted for 56% of deaths and 75% of economic losses from disasters associated with natural hazards reported during that period. As climate change continues to threaten human lives, ecosystems and economies, risk information and early warning systems (EWS) are increasingly seen as key for reducing these impacts. The majority of countries, including 88% of least developed countries and small island states, that submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to UNFCCC have identified EWS as a “top priority”. This latest WMO report highlights progress made in EWS capacity – and identifies where and how governments can invest in effective EWS to strengthen countries’ resilience to multiple weather, water and climate-related hazards. Being prepared and able to react at the right time, in the right place, can save many lives and protect the livelihoods of communities everywhere.
2021 State of climate services: water
(World Meteorological Organization, 2021)
More than 2 billion people are living in countries under water stress and 3.6 billion people face inadequate access to water at least one month per year. Meanwhile, water-related hazards have increased in frequency for the past 20 years. Since 2000, flood-related disasters have increased by 134%, and the number and duration of droughts also increased by 29%. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is vital to achieving long-term social, economic and environmental well-being. But, although most countries have advanced their level of IWRM implementation, 107 countries remain off track to hit the goal of sustainably managing their water resources by 2030 (UN SDG 6). This latest WMO report explores the progress made by WMO Members in using climate services to address water-related challenges – and highlights the gaps in user engagement, forecasting, observing networks, and data collection that still exist.
Africa's adaptation gap: technical report
(UNEP, 2013) United Nations Environment Programme
This report is a stark analysis of where Africa stands in relation to its adaptation goals and is a cautionary indicator of what may happen should the emissions gap remain - necessitating additional adaptation. The report was accomplished to inform policymakers of the shortcomings and opportunities for adaptation to Climate Change in Africa. The results demonstrate how delaying action now will assuredly result in exponential costs down the road.
Assessing the climate resilience of Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA): a metric-based approach
(MDPI (Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute), 2021-11-07) Sono, Douglas; Wei, Ye; Jin, Ying
The impacts of climate change have resulted in the emergence of resilience as the de factor framework for countries seeking to capture the differential and uneven ability to prepare, react, respond and cope with volatile and rapid changes of climate-related stresses. Despite being considered by many researchers the most vulnerable region to the negative effects of climate change, the climate resilience of Sub-Saharan Africa has not been extensively studied. Using countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a study area, this paper constructed a pragmatically based resilience metric called the composite national climate resilience index (CNCRI) that can be used as a tool for the policy word. The inherent variables used to construct the CNCRI were justified and used to measure the resilience of countries in SSA based on five different dimensions. The result indicates that the CNCRI score, 1.05 (least resilient) to 44.8 (most resilient), and the island countries of Mauritius, Seychelles, and Cape Verde are comparatively more resilient than the rest of the countries in the study area. Regionally, Southern Africa is more resilient compared to East, West, and Central Africa. The vulnerability and readiness metric suggested that Cape Verde is the only country in SSA to have low vulnerability and high readiness, while most countries have high vulnerability and low readiness, making them the least resilient countries needing urgent mitigation and adaptation actions. Lastly, finding from this study could provide the policy world with insight for improving the overall ability to prepare and respond to the negative impacts of climate in the study area.
Climate and health country profile – 2015 : South Africa
(World Health Organization, 2015) World Health Organization
The Health and Climate Change Country Profile Project forms the foundation of WHO’s monitoring of national and global progress on health and climate change. Working in collaboration with national health authorities and health stakeholders, the Project aims to: Increase awareness of the health impacts of climate change. Support evidence- based decision making to strengthen the resilience of health systems. Support health involvement in national and international climate processes such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Promote actions that improve health while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate change 2022 : mitigation of climate change : summary for policymakers
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2022) Skea, Jim
The Working Group III report provides an updated global assessment of climate change mitigation progress and pledges, and examines the sources of global emissions. It explains developments in emission reduction and mitigation efforts, assessing the impact of national climate pledges in relation to long-term emissions goals. The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) provides a high-level summary of the key findings of the Working Group III Report and is approved by the IPCC member governments line by line.
Climate change 2022 : mitigation of climate change : technical summary
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2022) Abdulla, Amjad
Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The Technical Summary (TS) provides extended summary of key findings and serves as a link between the comprehensive assessment of the Working Group III Report and the concise SPM.
Climate change and disaster management in local government : skills needs and development
(Local Government, 2014) Local Government
The current and continued changes in global climate, influences the occurrences of extreme weather-related events, which are projected to increase in both intensity and frequency, with detrimental impacts on the social, economic and environmental sectors.
Climate change in Southern Africa
(World Food Programme, 2021) World Food Programme
Based on the technical paper Ramirez-Villegas J, Ghosh A, Craparo A, Thornton P, Manvatkar R, Bogart B, Läderach P . 2021. Climate change and its impacts in Southern Africa: A synthesis of existing evidence in support of the World Food Programme’s position paper. CCAFS Working paper No. 358. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS
Climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa fragile states: evidence from panel estimations
(International Monetary Fund, 2022-03-18) Maino, Rodolfo; Emrullahu, Drilona
Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenges to respond to the effects of climate shocks and rising temperatures. Fragility is linked to structural weaknesses, government failure, and lack of institutional basic functions. Against this setup, climate change could add to risks. A panel fixed effects model (1980 to 2019) found that the effect of a 1◦C rise in temperature decreases income per capita growth in fragile states in SSA by 1.8 percentage points. Panel quantile regression models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity, corroborate that the effects of higher temperature on income per capita growth are negative while the impact of income per capita growth on carbon emissions growth is heterogeneous, indicating that higher income per capita growth could help reduce carbon emissions growth for high-emitter countries. These findings tend to support the hypothesis behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the energy consumption growth literature, which postulates that as income increases, emissions increase pari passu until a threshold level of income where emissions start to decline.
Climate change, development and energy problems in South Africa: another world is possible
(Oxfam, 2009-06-26)
Much of South Africa is already arid or semi-arid and climate change is expected to increase temperatures and droughts and add to pressure on limited water supplies. Poor people will be hardest hit. The South African government has been commendably vocal in calling for rich countries to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Yet South Africa is also part of the problem as the largest emitter of GHGs on the continent. South Africa’s dependency on coal-fired power stations results in very high per capita energy use, yet still 30% of citizens do not have access to electricity. Most emissions come from just two companies, Eskom and Sasol. The report argues that conventional fossil-fuel powered development is both unsustainable in terms of climate change, and is also failing the poor. Yet South Africa has enormous untapped potential for solar power, wind and other renewable energies. Eskom and Sasol both claim to take climate change seriously and have strategies to diversify energy supply, but in practice they continue to scale-up production based on coal. This report argues that government must get serious about implementing its renewable energy targets and keep Eskom and Sasol to their word. Earthlife Africa is expert in analysing the energy sector and Oxfam International has contributed information about climate change impacts on poor communities.
Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st century
(Centre for Environmental Rights, 2021-09) Scholes, Robert; Engelbrecht, Francois
There is no scientific doubt that the climate of southern Africa is becoming warmer, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases is increasing and the sea level surrounding the continent is rising. Human activities are by far the largest cause of these changes. The principle causes are the global burning of fossil fuels and the transformation of the global land surface from natural vegetation to croplands, pastures and human settlements. The climate will continue to change throughout the 21st century, to a degree mostly determined by human actions and the policies that guide them. Global ‘low mitigation futures’ that lead to global mean warming well in excess of 3 C pose much higher risks to the future development of South Africa than ‘high mitigation futures’ which limit warming below 2 C; which in turn have higher risks than futures which stay below 1.5 °C, or only briefly exceed it. The latter two futures require urgent and strenuous efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including by developing countries like South Africa. Southern Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its geographical location and socioeconomic development state. It is an already warm and dry region, projected to become warmer and drier, and has many demands on its institutions and finances in addition to climate change. Warming in the interior of southern Africa is occurring at about twice the global average rate. There is a high likelihood that agricultural production in southern Africa, including staple crops and livestock, will be reduced relative to the no climate change case. This is because the region is already beyond the temperature optimum for most crop and livestock production, and crop and forage production in an already dry country decreases if soil moisture decreases further. These impacts increase as the level of global warming increases, and at 3 °C of global warming the collapse of key crops and the livestock sector are likely. Freshwater availability, already critically limited in southern Africa, will be reduced in future as a result of decreasing rainfall and increasing evaporation. These impacts will amplify as the level of global warming increases. Water quality also decreases in a warmer, drier southern Africa, increasing the risk of water-borne diseases. The likelihood of long-duration droughts increases in the future because of two fundamental mechanisms resulting from global warming: the strengthening of subsidence over southern Africa, and the poleward movement of frontal systems. When droughts exceed the historically-experienced frequency and intensity, the coping mechanisms are overwhelmed. These risks increase from 1.5 to 2 °C of global warming, with further increases under higher levels of global warming. The number, intensity and duration of heat waves in South Africa will increase steeply in future as a result of global warming. The capacity to perform manual labour out of doors decreases dramatically as the occurrence of heat waves increases. Human mortality increases, particularly in urban areas with inadequate housing, but may in some locations be offset by decreases in mortality as a result of fewer cold spells. The risk of severe storms, including intense tropical cyclones and very intense thunderstorms, increases with climate change in southern Africa. As a result, loss of life, injury and damage to infrastructure also increases. Thousands of species, many occurring only in southern Africa, are at increased risk of premature extinction as a result of human-caused climate change. This loss has negative consequences for human wellbeing and the economy, as well as weakening the capacity to adapt to climate change.
Climate transparency report : comparing G20 climate action
(Climate Transparency, 2022) Climate Transparency
Recognising South Africa’s fossil fuel dependence and the need to address climate and development in an integrated manner, Just Transition is high on the policy agenda. In 2020, a Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) was launched, comprising stakeholders from labour, civil society, business, and youth. At COP26 in 2021, South Africa and international partners agreed to the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), a first of its kind financing deal to support the transition to a low-carbon economy and society.
Climate transparency report : comparing G20 climate action and responses to the Covid-19 crisis
(Climate Transparency, 2020) Climate Transparency
South Africa responded to COVID-19 with an early lockdown, just three weeks after its first reported case on 5 March 2020. This quick response managed to prevent an exponential initial outbreak, but the virus has continued to spread, greatly impacting the most vulnerable and exacerbating problems in a healthcare system already coping with HIV and TB epidemics. In April 2020, the government announced a USD 26bn stimulus package in response to COVID-19, almost 10% of South Africa’s GDP.
Detailed projections of future climate change over South Africa : workstream 2 : research report
(Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), 2019) Engelbrecht, Francois
This work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the CSIR Long-term Thematic Programme, Pretoria, South Africa and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the IDRC or its Board of Governors
Ecosystem-based flood management a comparative study report of the cities of Cape Town and Durban (South Africa), Nairobi and Mombasa (Kenya)
(Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2021) Gajjar, Sumetee Pahwa; Wendo, Hausner; Polgar, Ana; Hofemeier, Alannah
Flooding poses a significant threat to cities in the Global South with unplanned city extensions, prevalent poverty and low adaptive capacity. Depending on location, physical characteristics, and climate change risk, urban areas can be affected by a number of flooding typologies. Urban floods are becoming more common as a result of increasing urbanization, climate change, and poor urban planning including the gap in service provision and limitations in effective solid waste management. Rapid urbanisation means cities have reduced ability to learn from mistakes and build adaptive capacity. Nevertheless, there is a broad range of interventions and measures to reduce flood risk at different scales. Flooding is often considered as the most devastating natural hazard to manage through disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies. Integrated Flood Risk Management (IFRM) describes a broader approach, entailing a combination of structural as well as non-structural elements, which improves resilience to flood disasters. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) and nature-based solutions (NbS), which aim to restore and enhance the natural dynamics of ecosystems to buffer the adverse impacts of climate change, can provide many environmental, socioeconomic, and biodiversity benefits for flood risk management solutions. The capital city of Ghana, Accra, and its peri-urban areas have always suffered from annual floods during the rainy seasons. Supported by CDKN, five Accra municipalities are working together with the University of Ghana to address flood risk with a special focus on the use of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) approaches to finding a lasting solution to the perennial flooding in Accra. In order to give recommendations to Accra officials and to foster exchange between Accra-based District and Municipal officials with selected cities in South Africa and Kenya, this report showcases good practices in flood management approaches by the cities of Cape Town, Durban, Nairobi and Mombasa to provide concise information on DRR practices, with a specific focus on EbA and NbS. Information on the case study cities was gathered using literature review and guided by and expanded upon semi-structured interviews. These were conducted with representatives of city authorities, national governments, public benefit organisations whose work touched on flood resilience, community organisations and research institutions. The researchers agreed upon a survey framework in advance so that data could be collected from the different cities in a systematic and consistent manner. While each of the cities has their very own political, social and cultural context, some of the key challenges related to flooding seem to appear in almost every city. Rapid urbanisation in response to high development needs, leads to an increase in impervious surfaces, areas with a lack of solid waste management or insufficient drainage systems. Especially affected are (informal) settlements located in flood prone areas. Moreover, every city is already observing adverse impacts by climate change such as an increase in heavy rainfall or precipitation extremes.
Emissions gap report 2021: the heat is on - a world of climate promises not yet delivered
(United Nations Environment Programme, 2021)
The Emissions Gap Report (EGR) 2021: The Heat Is On shows that new national climate pledges combined with other mitigation measures put the world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century. That is well above the goals of the Paris climate agreement and would lead to catastrophic changes in the Earth’s climate. To keep global warming below 1.5°C this century, the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement, the world needs to halve annual greenhouse gas emissions in the next eight years. If implemented effectively, net-zero emissions pledges could limit warming to 2.2°C, closer to the well-below 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement. However, many national climate plans delay action until after 2030. The reduction of methane emissions from the fossil fuel, waste and agriculture sectors could help close the emissions gap and reduce warming in the short term, the report finds. Carbon markets could also help slash emissions. But that would only happen if rules are clearly defined and target actual reductions in emissions, while being supported by arrangements to track progress and provide transparency.
Emissions gap report: broken record: temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)
(United Nations Environment Programme, 2023)
The world is witnessing a disturbing acceleration in the number, speed and scale of broken climate records. At the time of writing, 86 days have been recorded with temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this year. Not only was September the hottest month ever, it also exceeded the previous record by an unprecedented 0.5°C, with global average temperatures at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels. These records were accompanied by devastating extreme events, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned us are merely a meek beginning. While the records do not imply that the world has exceeded the 1.5°C temperature limit specified in the Paris Agreement, which refers to global warming levels based on multi-decadal averages, they signal that we are getting closer. This fourteenth Emissions Gap Report is published ahead of the twenty-eighth session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 28). It provides an annual, independent science-based assessment of the gap between the pledged greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions and the reductions required to align with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, as well as opportunities to bridge this gap. COP 28 marks the conclusion of the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement, held every five years to assess the global response to the climate crisis and chart a better way forward. This closely mirrors the objective of the Emissions Gap Report, and the report aims to provide findings relevant to the concluding discussions under the global stocktake. To inform COP 28 – including on the outcomes needed from the global stocktake – and set the scene for the next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that countries are requested to submit in 2025, which will include emissions reduction targets for 2035, this report looks at what is required this decade and beyond 2030 to maintain the possibility of achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. It underscores that maintaining this possibility hinges on relentlessly strengthening mitigation action this decade to narrow the emissions gap. This will facilitate significantly more ambitious targets for 2035 in the next round of NDCs, and pave the way for enhancing the credibility and feasibility of the net-zero pledges that by now cover around 80 per cent of global emissions. Failure to bring global GHG emissions in 2030 below the levels implied by current NDCs will make it impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot and strongly increase the challenge of limiting warming to 2°C. As this report shows, not only temperature records continue to be broken – global GHG emissions and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) also set new records in 2022. Due to the failure to stringently reduce emissions in high-income and high-emitting countries (which bear the greatest responsibility for past emissions) and to limit emissions growth in low- and middle-income countries (which account for the majority of current emissions), unprecedented action is now needed by all countries. For high-income countries, this implies further accelerating domestic emissions reductions, committing to reaching net zero as soon as possible – and sooner than the global averages from the latest IPCC report implies – and at the same time providing financial and technical support to low- and middle-income countries. For low- and middle-income countries, it means that pressing development needs must be met alongside a transition away from fossil fuels. Furthermore, the delay in stringent mitigation action will likely increase future dependence on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, but availability of large-scale CDR options in the future cannot be taken for granted. This year, the report thus explores opportunities and challenges associated with energy transitions as well as development and deployment of CDR.
First biennial report to cabinet on the state of climate change : science and technology in South Africa
(Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf), 2017) Academy of Science of South Africa
This report aligns with the Medium-Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) of the government of South Africa, which in turn stems from the work of the National Planning Commission and its National Development Plan (NDP). Outcome 10 of the MTSF calls for a report on the state of climate change science and technology in South Africa to be provided to Cabinet by the DST and the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) every two years. This is the first such report. The report aims to: provide a critical assessment and comparative overview of climate change scientific research and related technological innovations; identify any gaps or barriers in research and technology development value chains; suggest ways to improve the current situation and maximise opportunities for South Africa.
Long-term adaptation scenarios flagship research programme (LTAS) : climate change implications for the water sector in South Africa
(Department of Environmental Affairs, 2013) Department of Environmental Affairs
This technical report summarises climate change impacts, adaptation response options and future research needs for the water sector based on the results of relevant past and current research, including the draft National Water Resource Strategy 2 (NWRS2), the National Water Adaptation Strategy process, and new impact modelling for annual and seasonal runoff under both unconstrained and constrained pathways from recent modelling work conducted by the Treasury and the National Planning Commission.

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