Climate Action

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Assessing the climate resilience of Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA): a metric-based approach
(MDPI (Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute), 2021-11-07) Sono, Douglas; Wei, Ye; Jin, Ying
The impacts of climate change have resulted in the emergence of resilience as the de factor framework for countries seeking to capture the differential and uneven ability to prepare, react, respond and cope with volatile and rapid changes of climate-related stresses. Despite being considered by many researchers the most vulnerable region to the negative effects of climate change, the climate resilience of Sub-Saharan Africa has not been extensively studied. Using countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a study area, this paper constructed a pragmatically based resilience metric called the composite national climate resilience index (CNCRI) that can be used as a tool for the policy word. The inherent variables used to construct the CNCRI were justified and used to measure the resilience of countries in SSA based on five different dimensions. The result indicates that the CNCRI score, 1.05 (least resilient) to 44.8 (most resilient), and the island countries of Mauritius, Seychelles, and Cape Verde are comparatively more resilient than the rest of the countries in the study area. Regionally, Southern Africa is more resilient compared to East, West, and Central Africa. The vulnerability and readiness metric suggested that Cape Verde is the only country in SSA to have low vulnerability and high readiness, while most countries have high vulnerability and low readiness, making them the least resilient countries needing urgent mitigation and adaptation actions. Lastly, finding from this study could provide the policy world with insight for improving the overall ability to prepare and respond to the negative impacts of climate in the study area.
Climate change 2022 : mitigation of climate change : summary for policymakers
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2022) Skea, Jim
The Working Group III report provides an updated global assessment of climate change mitigation progress and pledges, and examines the sources of global emissions. It explains developments in emission reduction and mitigation efforts, assessing the impact of national climate pledges in relation to long-term emissions goals. The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) provides a high-level summary of the key findings of the Working Group III Report and is approved by the IPCC member governments line by line.
Climate change 2022 : mitigation of climate change : technical summary
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2022) Abdulla, Amjad
Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The Technical Summary (TS) provides extended summary of key findings and serves as a link between the comprehensive assessment of the Working Group III Report and the concise SPM.
Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st century
(Centre for Environmental Rights, 2021-09) Scholes, Robert; Engelbrecht, Francois
There is no scientific doubt that the climate of southern Africa is becoming warmer, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases is increasing and the sea level surrounding the continent is rising. Human activities are by far the largest cause of these changes. The principle causes are the global burning of fossil fuels and the transformation of the global land surface from natural vegetation to croplands, pastures and human settlements. The climate will continue to change throughout the 21st century, to a degree mostly determined by human actions and the policies that guide them. Global ‘low mitigation futures’ that lead to global mean warming well in excess of 3 C pose much higher risks to the future development of South Africa than ‘high mitigation futures’ which limit warming below 2 C; which in turn have higher risks than futures which stay below 1.5 °C, or only briefly exceed it. The latter two futures require urgent and strenuous efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including by developing countries like South Africa. Southern Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its geographical location and socioeconomic development state. It is an already warm and dry region, projected to become warmer and drier, and has many demands on its institutions and finances in addition to climate change. Warming in the interior of southern Africa is occurring at about twice the global average rate. There is a high likelihood that agricultural production in southern Africa, including staple crops and livestock, will be reduced relative to the no climate change case. This is because the region is already beyond the temperature optimum for most crop and livestock production, and crop and forage production in an already dry country decreases if soil moisture decreases further. These impacts increase as the level of global warming increases, and at 3 °C of global warming the collapse of key crops and the livestock sector are likely. Freshwater availability, already critically limited in southern Africa, will be reduced in future as a result of decreasing rainfall and increasing evaporation. These impacts will amplify as the level of global warming increases. Water quality also decreases in a warmer, drier southern Africa, increasing the risk of water-borne diseases. The likelihood of long-duration droughts increases in the future because of two fundamental mechanisms resulting from global warming: the strengthening of subsidence over southern Africa, and the poleward movement of frontal systems. When droughts exceed the historically-experienced frequency and intensity, the coping mechanisms are overwhelmed. These risks increase from 1.5 to 2 °C of global warming, with further increases under higher levels of global warming. The number, intensity and duration of heat waves in South Africa will increase steeply in future as a result of global warming. The capacity to perform manual labour out of doors decreases dramatically as the occurrence of heat waves increases. Human mortality increases, particularly in urban areas with inadequate housing, but may in some locations be offset by decreases in mortality as a result of fewer cold spells. The risk of severe storms, including intense tropical cyclones and very intense thunderstorms, increases with climate change in southern Africa. As a result, loss of life, injury and damage to infrastructure also increases. Thousands of species, many occurring only in southern Africa, are at increased risk of premature extinction as a result of human-caused climate change. This loss has negative consequences for human wellbeing and the economy, as well as weakening the capacity to adapt to climate change.
Detailed projections of future climate change over South Africa : workstream 2 : research report
(Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), 2019) Engelbrecht, Francois
This work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the CSIR Long-term Thematic Programme, Pretoria, South Africa and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the IDRC or its Board of Governors
Emissions gap report: broken record: temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)
(United Nations Environment Programme, 2023)
The world is witnessing a disturbing acceleration in the number, speed and scale of broken climate records. At the time of writing, 86 days have been recorded with temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this year. Not only was September the hottest month ever, it also exceeded the previous record by an unprecedented 0.5°C, with global average temperatures at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels. These records were accompanied by devastating extreme events, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned us are merely a meek beginning. While the records do not imply that the world has exceeded the 1.5°C temperature limit specified in the Paris Agreement, which refers to global warming levels based on multi-decadal averages, they signal that we are getting closer. This fourteenth Emissions Gap Report is published ahead of the twenty-eighth session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 28). It provides an annual, independent science-based assessment of the gap between the pledged greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions and the reductions required to align with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, as well as opportunities to bridge this gap. COP 28 marks the conclusion of the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement, held every five years to assess the global response to the climate crisis and chart a better way forward. This closely mirrors the objective of the Emissions Gap Report, and the report aims to provide findings relevant to the concluding discussions under the global stocktake. To inform COP 28 – including on the outcomes needed from the global stocktake – and set the scene for the next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that countries are requested to submit in 2025, which will include emissions reduction targets for 2035, this report looks at what is required this decade and beyond 2030 to maintain the possibility of achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. It underscores that maintaining this possibility hinges on relentlessly strengthening mitigation action this decade to narrow the emissions gap. This will facilitate significantly more ambitious targets for 2035 in the next round of NDCs, and pave the way for enhancing the credibility and feasibility of the net-zero pledges that by now cover around 80 per cent of global emissions. Failure to bring global GHG emissions in 2030 below the levels implied by current NDCs will make it impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot and strongly increase the challenge of limiting warming to 2°C. As this report shows, not only temperature records continue to be broken – global GHG emissions and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) also set new records in 2022. Due to the failure to stringently reduce emissions in high-income and high-emitting countries (which bear the greatest responsibility for past emissions) and to limit emissions growth in low- and middle-income countries (which account for the majority of current emissions), unprecedented action is now needed by all countries. For high-income countries, this implies further accelerating domestic emissions reductions, committing to reaching net zero as soon as possible – and sooner than the global averages from the latest IPCC report implies – and at the same time providing financial and technical support to low- and middle-income countries. For low- and middle-income countries, it means that pressing development needs must be met alongside a transition away from fossil fuels. Furthermore, the delay in stringent mitigation action will likely increase future dependence on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, but availability of large-scale CDR options in the future cannot be taken for granted. This year, the report thus explores opportunities and challenges associated with energy transitions as well as development and deployment of CDR.
Long-term adaptation scenarios flagship research programme (LTAS) : climate change implications for the water sector in South Africa
(Department of Environmental Affairs, 2013) Department of Environmental Affairs
This technical report summarises climate change impacts, adaptation response options and future research needs for the water sector based on the results of relevant past and current research, including the draft National Water Resource Strategy 2 (NWRS2), the National Water Adaptation Strategy process, and new impact modelling for annual and seasonal runoff under both unconstrained and constrained pathways from recent modelling work conducted by the Treasury and the National Planning Commission.
Mitigation: South Africa’s greenhouse gas mitigation potential analysis
(Department of Environmental Affairs, 2014)
A greenhouse gas mitigation potential analysis has been conducted for South Africa. The analysis has identified and analysed mitigation options in key economic sectors. In the process, an updated projection of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the future has been developed, along with marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) for key sectors and subsectors. A socio-economic and environmental assessment of the identified mitigation options has also been conducted, leading to the development of national abatement pathways and an assessment of the wider macroeconomic impacts of implementing a broad set of mitigation options. Projections of economic growth are aligned to targeted levels of future economic growth. The targeted level of future economic growth is based on the moderate growth rate defined by National Treasury. The moderate growth scenario forecasts real growth in gross domestic product (GDP growth) of 4.2% per annum over the medium-term (defined in the draft Integrated Energy Plan as 2015–2020) and 4.3% per annum over the long-term (2021–2050). A detailed inter-industry economic modelling framework, the Inter-industry Forecasting Model (INFORUM), was used as the basis for projecting economic growth in all sectors of the South African economy.

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