Modelling Future Demand and Supply of Skills in South Africa : Technical Report : 10 Year Skills Demand and Supply Forecast

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dc.contributor.authorAdelzadeh, Asghar
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-19T08:45:29Z
dc.date.available2024-04-19T08:45:29Z
dc.date.issued2017-03
dc.descriptionThis report, produced by Applied Development Research Solutions (ADRS), is the product of a partnership between the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) and the University of the Witwatersrand. The views and opinions expressed in this document are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the DHET or the University of Witwatersrand. The DHET and the University of the Witwatersrand will not be liable for any content errors or for the accuracy of the information contained in this report.
dc.description.abstractIn South Africa, the rationale for regular, coherent and systematic forecasts of demand and supply for skills follows policy initiatives that have given high priority to anticipate changing skill needs due to globalisation, economic restructuring, technological and organizational change, and demographic developments (including HIV/AIDS, ageing populations and migration). An important pre-requisite for skills planning is access to quantitative foresight about the possible future paths of the economy that includes projections of the labour force, job openings, employment and unemployment by qualification under alternative ‘what if’ scenarios. Until last year, South Africa did not have such a comprehensive system to perform consistent skills projections. Through the economic modelling programme of the LMIP, a firm foundation has been established for undertaking such forecasts regularly. The economic model that has been built for skills planning in South Africa (the Linked Macro-Education Model, LM-EM) consists of a multi-sectoral macroeconomic module that is linked to seven inter-related demand and supply modules for occupations and skills. The model also has a user-friendly web-platform that makes it accessible to policymakers, policy analysts, academics and students. The model’s full Technical Report provides a detailed presentation of the modelling techniques used to build the LM-EM. The main objective of this project has been to support strategic thinking and policymaking at the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) by building the Department’s capacity as well as that of the Sector Education and Training Authorities (SETAs) to anticipate trends in the demand for and supply of skills from the education and training sector. More specific objectives included (a) Building a holistic and sustainable linked macro-education model with which to regularly generate credible projections of supply and demand of skills in the economy under alternative ‘what if’ scenarios related to theevolution of the economy, the labour market, key external drivers, and key policy changes and prospective reforms; and (b) building capacity at the Department, as well as SETAs, to effectively use the model for their planning purposes.
dc.identifier.citationAdelzadeh, Asghar (2017). Modelling Future Demand and Supply of Skills in South Africa: Technical Report and Ten Year Forecast. Report prepared for the Department of Higher Education and Training, Pretoria.
dc.identifier.isbn9781770188259
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.dhet.gov.za/Commissions%20Reports/Modelling%20future%20of%20demand%20and%20supply%20of%20skills%20in%20south%20Africa/Modelling%20future%20demand%20and%20supply%20of%20skills%20in%20South%20Africa.pdf
dc.identifier.urihttp://lhg.cput.ac.za//handle/123456789/274
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherDepartment of Higher Education and Training, Pretoria, South Africa ; Applied Development Research Solutions, Folsom, United States
dc.subjectHigher education
dc.subjectSouth Africa
dc.subjectCritical skills
dc.subjectOccupations
dc.subjectLabour market
dc.titleModelling Future Demand and Supply of Skills in South Africa : Technical Report : 10 Year Skills Demand and Supply Forecast
dc.typeTechnical Report
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